This past week I attended Deloitte’s Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions, which does a cross-Canada tour, presented by Duncan Stewart their head of research each year about this time. I’ve attended for the past few years (as a Deloitte alumni “by adoption”, courtesy of having articled to become a Chartered Accountant at Arthur Andersen many -many- moons ago, and was since merged into Deloitte), and their predictions are reliably accurate indicators of the year ahead.
Last year’s most interesting prediction was that tablets would sell 12 million units, which was made a week before Apple announced (or even acknowledged) their iPad. At Apple’s announcment in 2010 Steve Jobs modestly predicted they would sell a million units. On the other hand, Deloitte’s fearless 2010 prediction was out by only 100,000 units.
Here area their top predictions:
Smartphones and tablets: More than half of all computers aren’t computers anymore.2011 is the tipping point for half of computers being this portable
Interestingly, as of the publication date, though they are busy –and profitable- selling smartphones and smartphone data access plans, NONE of the major telecom providers (Bell, Telus, Rogers or Shaw) have made their own websites smartphone compatible, nor provide ways for their web hosting clients to provide their clients mobile versions of their websites, with browser auto-detection. Tisk, Tisk!
Tablets in the enterprise: More than just a toy. Many new applications being invented for this new type of portable computer. For example, Point of Sale retail displays become more interactive. Operating system diversity: No standard emerges on the smartphone or tablet, and no-one dominates
. Google’s Android has just passed the iPhone in sales numbers, but no one else is going away…
Social network advertising: How big can it get? Social networking ads grow,
but remain below 1% of global advertising revenues. When’s the last time YOU clicked on a Facebook ad?
Television’s “super media” The future of TV is TV: PVRs, Internet TV and other media do not threaten, replace or even compete with traditional TV – they complement it
PVRs proliferate! The 30-second spot doesn’t die!The last ad in a 3-ad sequence is the most valuable ad since even PVR users see it Push beats pull in the battle for the television viewer
. More viewers still watch scheduled TV for sports and news, rather than watching recorded TV. “Search” for TV is not a popular option, and adds too much clutter to a PVT remote.
What’s “in-store” for Wi-Fi: Online comparison shopping on aisle three Retailers roll out Wi-Fi to encourage in-store comparisons. Retailers will use WiFi to help employees provide better service & product info, and enable shoppers to do online price comparisons while shopping Getting to 4G cheaply: Will many carriers opt for 3.5G instead?
The proliferation of new computing devices doesn’t mean that we need new networks. Video content uses most networks bandwidth, but network providers will only upgrade capacity when they need to.
Wi-Fi complements cellular broadband for “data on the move” WiFi Hotspots will proliferate to take the data load off cellular broadband networks